What will it take to get you out of your car?

One of the main hobbyhorses obsessed over by transit advocates is the price of gasoline. When gas is cheap, we complain that it is supppressed by foreign policy and energy development tax credits to encourage sprawl and other waste. When gas is expensive, we whine that people aren't switching to transit as fast as they should given the relative costs of driving versus taking a bus, train or bike.

Yesterday, for the first time ever, I paid over $3 for a gallon of gas in what is certain to be one of very few additional gas purchases until prices get lower or I sell my car. However, when I pulled out of the gas station and into the street, the traffic was just as bad. Just how bad does it have to get before people clamor for transit in a serious way? Some have tried to puzzle it out:

At issue is "elasticity," the measure of how much demand changes with increases or decreases in price. Gasoline demand in the United States is relatively inelastic because drivers lack alternatives for transportation. According to studies cited in a 2001 Oregon Department of Transportation report, a 10 percent increase in the cost of gasoline will cause a decrease of about 1.5 percent in miles traveled. By comparison, research suggests a 10 percent increase in the price of cigarettes leads to a 2.8 percent to 4 percent drop in sales.

"The one problem with modeling elasticity for gasoline is that if you don't have a substitute, there won't be elasticity," said Jacob Bournazian, a retail gasoline expert with EIA. But over the long term, as new technologies are developed, commuters usually adapt. Options such as moving closer to a commuting destination or purchasing a more fuel-efficient vehicle may not be viable in the short term, but they become options as the time horizon expands, Bournazian said.

While some have predicted gasoline prices may reach nearly $3 in some regions during the peak summer driving season, even prices on the high end of the scale may not reduce driving or prompt consumers to buy new, more fuel-efficient cars, according to experts.

A recent survey by CNW Marketing Research said about one-third of drivers would consider buying a more efficient vehicle if fuel prices reached $3.25 a gallon. "It might seem that we have a good way to go before a significant chunk will consider changing their vehicle," said Robert Sinclair of the Automobile Association of America.

Well, premium at some Chicagoland locations is going for $3.25 and the increase in fuel costs is actually hurting the CTA because ridership isn't rising in any meaningful way to cover the higher price of diesel.

There is obviously a long way to go before habits change.